Care Worker Visa Changes 2026: What Happens When the Shortage List Closes

Somewhere in a care home in Birmingham, a woman from the Philippines is helping a 91-year-old man out of bed. She has been doing this for three years. She holds a Skilled Worker visa, sponsored by her employer, and she is one of roughly 120,000 care workers who entered the United Kingdom through a recruitment route that closed to new overseas applicants on 22 July 2025. The government’s Immigration White Paper, published in May 2025, set the direction: care workers (SOC codes 6135 and 6136) would no longer be recruited from abroad. What happens to those already here — and to the sector that depends on them — will define the future of adult social care in this country.

How We Got Here: The Shortage List Timeline

To understand the current situation, you need to understand how the shortage lists have evolved. Care workers were added to the Shortage Occupation List (SOL) in February 2022, at a time when the sector was haemorrhaging staff. Post-Brexit freedom of movement had ended. The pandemic had burned out thousands of existing workers. Vacancies were spiralling. The government’s response was to open the immigration route — and the sector took it up with extraordinary speed. For occupations on the SOL, the salary threshold was lower, and the skills-level requirement was relaxed, making it possible for care workers from countries like India, Nigeria, the Philippines, Zimbabwe and Ghana to come to the UK to work in residential homes, domiciliary care services and supported living facilities.

In April 2024, the SOL was replaced by the Immigration Salary List (ISL). Care workers remained eligible under the new list, but the broader political direction was already shifting. Then, on 22 July 2025, the government closed the care worker route to new overseas recruitment entirely. No new Certificates of Sponsorship could be issued for care workers or senior care workers from abroad.

A new Temporary Shortage List (TSL) is expected to launch in December 2026, replacing the ISL. However, care workers are not expected to be included on it. The government has made clear that the care sector should transition to domestic recruitment. (Immigration White Paper, May 2025.)

What the Closure Means in Practice

The care worker visa route was never designed to be permanent. It was conceived as a bridge — a way to fill critical gaps while the domestic workforce was rebuilt. That bridge was withdrawn on 22 July 2025, when the government stopped issuing new Certificates of Sponsorship for overseas care workers.

Crucially, there is a transitional provision: care workers who already hold a valid Skilled Worker visa can still switch employers or extend their visa in-country until 22 July 2028. But no new overseas applications will be accepted. For those already here, the standard Skilled Worker visa requirements will eventually apply — and this is where the picture becomes deeply problematic.

The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) continues to advise on the composition of future shortage lists. The new Temporary Shortage List, expected in December 2026, will determine which occupations receive reduced-threshold treatment going forward — but the government has given no indication that care workers will be restored to it.

The Salary Threshold Problem

Here is the detail that most people miss. The current Skilled Worker visa requires occupations at RQF Level 3 or above — and care worker roles do meet that threshold (they sit at RQF Level 3). So the skills level is not, in itself, the barrier. The real problem is the salary threshold.

The general salary threshold for a Skilled Worker visa is £38,700 per year (as of April 2024). When care workers were on the shortage list, employers could pay a reduced rate — typically the occupation’s going rate, which for care workers was around £23,200. Without shortage list concessions, the full threshold applies. Most care workers in the UK earn between £20,000 and £25,000. The gap is enormous.

The May 2025 White Paper also signalled the government’s intention to raise skills requirements further in future, potentially moving toward RQF Level 6 (degree level) for the standard Skilled Worker route. Care workers are classified at RQF Level 3. If that change materialises, care roles would fall below the skills threshold entirely — not just the salary one.

Let that sink in. The UK immigration system is telling a sector with 165,000 unfilled vacancies that it can no longer recruit from overseas. This is the same work that involves managing medication, supporting people with dementia, handling safeguarding concerns and — quite often — being the last person someone sees before they die. The classification system does not reflect the reality of the work.

The Scale of the Workforce Crisis

To understand what is at stake, you need to understand the numbers. Adult social care in England alone employs approximately 1.59 million people across roughly 39,000 establishments. Skills for Care, the sector's workforce development body, estimates that there are around 165,000 vacancies on any given day — a vacancy rate of more than 10%.

The demand side is only getting worse. The UK population aged 85 and over is projected to double within the next 25 years. The number of people living with dementia is expected to rise from 900,000 to 1.6 million by 2040. Local authorities are already struggling to commission enough care. Self-funders are paying inflated rates because providers cannot recruit enough staff to meet demand.

International recruitment has been a lifeline. In the year ending March 2024, overseas workers accounted for a significant proportion of new starters in the care sector. At its peak in 2023, more than 120,000 care worker visas were granted in a single year. But following tightening restrictions — including a ban on dependants in March 2024 and the full closure in July 2025 — visa grants fell by 81% in 2024–25 (Community Care). Without international recruits, providers have been clear: services would close. Care homes would hand back contracts. Domiciliary care rounds would go uncovered. Hospital discharge would grind to a halt as patients waited for care packages that never materialised.

The closure of the overseas recruitment route does not remove the demand. It removes the supply.

What Employers Should Do Now

If you are a care provider who relies on international recruitment, the time to act is not December. It is now. There are several steps that responsible employers should be taking immediately.

What Care Workers Should Do Now

If you are a care worker on a Skilled Worker visa — or considering coming to the UK on one — you need to understand your options clearly. The landscape is shifting, and the decisions you make in the next few months could determine your ability to remain in the country.

Use the transitional window to extend or switch

The government has confirmed a three-year transitional period: existing care worker visa holders can still extend their visa or switch to a new sponsor in-country until 22 July 2028. Visa extensions are assessed against the rules in force at the time of application. If you apply within this window, you benefit from the current concessions. If you wait beyond it, you may find yourself applying under a regime that no longer recognises your occupation as eligible. (Gov.uk: Extend your Skilled Worker visa.)

Speak to your employer about this. They will need to assign a new Certificate of Sponsorship for the extension. Start the conversation early — do not leave it until 2028.

Upskill to a degree-level qualification

If the standard Skilled Worker route moves to require RQF Level 6 occupations — as the May 2025 White Paper proposed — one option is to move into a role that already meets that threshold. Registered nurses, occupational therapists and social workers all sit at Level 6 or above. Some universities and training providers offer top-up degrees and accelerated pathways for experienced care workers.

This is not quick, and it is not cheap. But if you intend to build a long-term career in the UK health and care sector, a degree-level qualification opens doors that may otherwise close. Look into the NHS Learning Support Fund and employer-sponsored training programmes.

Switch to a different visa category

Depending on your circumstances, other visa routes may be available. The Graduate visa (if you complete a UK degree) allows two years of unrestricted work. The Global Talent visa applies to those with exceptional skills. Family-based routes exist for those with qualifying relationships. The Innovator Founder visa is available if you have a genuine, scalable business idea endorsed by an approved body.

Each route has its own requirements and limitations. Take proper immigration advice — not from social media, not from a friend, but from a qualified OISC-registered adviser or solicitor.

Explore business ownership

This is the option that few people talk about, but it deserves serious consideration. Care workers already understand the sector. They know what good care looks like. They know the regulations, the daily rhythms, the challenges and the human dynamics. What they often do not realise is that starting a regulated care business is more structured than almost any other industry.

The Care Quality Commission provides the entire regulatory framework. Every policy you need, every procedure you must follow, every standard you must meet is defined. Unlike starting a technology company or a retail business, where you are building from scratch, a care business operates within a structure that is already laid out for you. Policies define what must happen. Procedures define how it happens. You are not inventing a business model — you are implementing one.

This matters because the perception of starting a business — particularly for someone on a visa — is that it is risky, unpredictable and complex. In regulated care, it is the opposite. The framework is your safety net. The demand is guaranteed by demographics. The funding model, while imperfect, is established.

Companies like Zundara provide complete business packs with all 200+ documents ready, from policies and procedures to financial models and CQC registration guidance. For a care worker who already has the sector knowledge and the frontline experience, the step from employee to business owner is smaller than most people think.

Supported living and domiciliary care ventures are particularly well suited to this approach. The startup costs are lower than residential care (no building to purchase or lease initially). The commissioning relationships with local authorities are more accessible. And the regulatory requirements, while rigorous, are clearly defined and achievable for someone who already works in the sector.

The Bigger Picture

What is happening with care worker visas is not an isolated policy question. It sits at the intersection of three defining issues in British public life: immigration, the ageing population and the future of public services.

The government wants to reduce net migration. The public broadly supports that aim. But the same public also expects care to be available when their parents need it, when their grandparents fall ill, when a family member develops a condition that requires daily support. These two expectations are in direct tension, and the overseas care worker route was the mechanism that had been holding them together.

Now that the route has closed without a credible alternative, the consequences will not be abstract. They will be measured in delayed hospital discharges, closed care homes, unvisited vulnerable adults and families forced to give up work to provide care that the system can no longer deliver. The social care workforce crisis is not a future risk. It is a present reality that international recruitment has been masking.

For care workers themselves, the uncertainty is personal. These are people who moved across the world to do work that this country desperately needs. Many have put down roots. Their children are in British schools. They pay taxes, contribute to their communities and keep the care system functioning. The idea that their continued presence depends on a transitional window that expires in 2028 — and on policy decisions most of them had never heard of until recently — is a source of profound anxiety.

What Comes Next

The new Temporary Shortage List is expected to launch in December 2026. The Migration Advisory Committee will advise on which occupations qualify. There are several possible outcomes for social care.

Care workers could, in theory, be added to the new TSL — but the government has shown no inclination to do so. A new, sector-specific visa route for social care could be created that sits outside the standard Skilled Worker framework. The government could focus entirely on domestic recruitment, backed by workforce funding and pay reform. Or the transitional window could simply expire in July 2028, leaving existing visa holders to meet the full Skilled Worker requirements or leave.

The most likely outcome, based on current political signals, is that care workers will not return to any shortage list. The government’s May 2025 White Paper was explicit: sectors must reduce their dependence on overseas labour. But nothing about the domestic alternative — better pay, training pipelines, workforce investment — has materialised at the scale required. The sector should not plan on the basis of optimism.

The time for planning is now. Whether you are an employer, a care worker, a local authority commissioner or someone who may one day need care yourself, these decisions will affect you. The overseas recruitment route may have been a bureaucratic instrument, but its closure has consequences that are anything but.

Sources and further reading: Restoring Control over the Immigration System (White Paper, May 2025) • Skilled Worker visa (gov.uk) • Immigration Salary List (gov.uk) • Skills for Care workforce data • Community Care.

Editor’s note (15 February 2026): This article has been corrected to reflect that care workers (SOC 6135/6136) were closed to new overseas recruitment on 22 July 2025. An earlier version incorrectly implied care workers were on the Temporary Shortage List. The TSL, which replaces the Immigration Salary List, is expected to launch in December 2026 but care workers are not expected to be included. The 120,000+ visa figure relates primarily to grants in 2023; visa grants fell 81% in 2024–25. The government’s Immigration White Paper was published in May 2025.

Eleanor Hartley is Immigration Editor at OctusJournal. She covers UK visa policy, workforce migration and the intersection of immigration and industry. Contact: editorial@octusjournal.com